Thursday, September 27, 2012
Are Oversampled Political Polls Designed To Sway Minds?
I am not a pollster, but if I conduct a political survey composed of 318 Democrats, 236 Republicans and 78 Independents, would I be surprised to know that the Democrat comes out on top by a big number? D 50% vs R 39% is the published result, but the oversampling of one party over another is 14% (The numbers above are taken from a Franklin and Marshall Poll, cited in the Pittsburgh Tribune Review, 9/26/12, by Salena Zeto.)
After months of polls where the presidential candidates are locked in an even contest, suddenly – on the same day – in the pivotal states of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, polls are released by Quinnipiac University showing the democrat is ahead by 8-12 points, using samples that look like the above.
Quinnipiac's demographic samples include Republican, Democrats and Independents from Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania and they ask the respondents 48 questions -- 48, each with five choices! Think for a moment about the time it would take out a respondent's day to participate. If each question consumed 30 seconds and the set-up and wind-down were considered, this is probably a time commitment of 30 minutes, listening to an intentionally dry voice drone on for 48 questions with five choices per. The design of such a survey may be good on paper, but does not appear to consider that a human is required to participate.
Back to numbers, Quinnipiac numbers. Ignoring the impact of self-described Independents sampled, are the survey results predetermined simply by oversampling of one party? Would it have been a dead-heat if there was no predominance of one group over another?
Florida Political Survey:
Republicans surveyed 344
Democrats surveyed 417
Result: Democrat preferred 53% - 44%, a 9% difference
Oversample of Democrats: 9%
Pennsylvania Survey:
Republicans 344
Democrats 457
Result: Democrat Preferred 54% - 42, a 12% difference
Oversample of Democrats: 11%
Ohio Survey:
Republicans 326
Democrats 387
Result: Democrat Preferred 53% - 43, a 10% difference
Oversample of Democrats: 9%
Judge for yourself: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-%28fl-oh-and-pa%29/release-detail?ReleaseID=1800
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