Friday, October 5, 2012

Obama Needs a PR Knockout Blow -- Chicago Style


After the stunning lack of performance by Obama in the debate Wednesday night, I am waiting for the Chicago-style PR hit on Romney and/or Ryan.  Prior to this, the strategy of the Democrat Party was a new victim every week, pinned to Romney -- women, the 99%, immigrants, dogs, high school bully, a list of Bain victims culminating in accusing Romney of murder, the garbage man this week.  None of that matters after Wednesday night since none of it came up in the debate. The Democrat Party leadership in Chicago now is forced to cause a PR mudslide on Romney, hoping that the Romney Campaign responds badly and that the media minions provide cover for the Obama Campaign.

Whatever the Democrat Machine in Chicago is going to launch, it has to happen before the next debate. The Democrat Campaign cannot have another performance by their candidate. Unprotected by his Teleprompter, the President was forced to respond with cliched phrases embedded in his memory over the last four years, available for recall and repeat when nothing else comes to mind. The empty suit accusation has been augmented by the empty chair.

The Party senses the crumbling support of the media -- Bill  Mahrer, Rachel Maddow, Chis Matthews, CNN and even David Letterman -- all were critical of Obama's presence and involvement in the debate.

Obama tried to pin the word "liar" on Romney during the debate, but Romney rebuffed the attempt.  In his subsequent speeches, the President is continuing that line, calling Romney a "Phony."  In the absence of a record to run on, "character assassination" has been a counterpoint of the Democrat Campaign's leadership to creating "victims" attached to Romney and the Republicans.  Attacks on the person's character are beginning to wear thin with the media that has protected and shielded their man for five years. He was an an idea that they loved -- so full of promise that he was awarded a Nobel Peace Prize for doing nothing -- but now, after Wednesday's revelation of his clay feet, the media are beginning to feel foolish and betrayed.

Worrisome, as well, to the Chicago Democrat war room is a rumor that something big is about to hit the Obama Campaign  -- a donor scandal to be revealed either today (Friday) or Monday.  Reports are circulating that the Chicago Democrat leadership is desperately trying to squash the story, but have been unsuccessful.

The Democrat Machine in Chicago's planned "liar" campaign mantra, the personal attacks by Democrat surrogates, the insincere obligatory "misstatement" apologies, and the next "victim" campaign ad are beginning to lose traction. Debbie Wasserman Schultz is now a liability and Stephanie Cutter is compromised.  The campaign is beginning to look shell-shocked and in disarray.

In order to get the campaign righted again, the Chicago Democrat leadership will have to bury the Debate catastrophe, prop up the crumbling media support and de-legitimatize the looming scandal in the next few days. What mud bomb will the Democrat bunker in Chicago have to sling at Romney to survive -- scandalize Mormonism, the wife's role in a Mormon family, an arrest of a wayward son, Mitt Romney as a college playboy, Mitt's lack of military duty because he bought his way out of Viet Nam, a presumed affair?  Whatever it is, it needs to be a hard smack-down of Romney, enough to bring back Obama's swagger.

Oh... and then the Chicago Democrat leadership has to worry about Michelle.




Thursday, September 27, 2012

Are Oversampled Political Polls Designed To Sway Minds?


I am not a pollster, but if I conduct a political survey composed of 318 Democrats, 236 Republicans and 78 Independents, would I be surprised to know that the Democrat comes out on top by a big number? D 50% vs R 39%  is the published result, but the oversampling of one party over another is 14%  (The numbers above are taken from a Franklin and Marshall Poll, cited in the Pittsburgh Tribune Review, 9/26/12, by Salena Zeto.)

After months of polls where the presidential candidates are locked in an even contest, suddenly – on the same day – in the pivotal states of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, polls are released by Quinnipiac University showing the democrat is ahead by 8-12 points, using samples that look like the above.

Quinnipiac's demographic samples include Republican, Democrats and Independents from Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania and they ask the respondents 48 questions -- 48, each with five choices!  Think for a moment about the time it would take out a respondent's day to participate.  If each question consumed 30 seconds and the set-up and wind-down were considered, this is probably a time commitment of 30 minutes, listening to an intentionally dry voice drone on for 48 questions with five choices per.  The design of such a survey may be good on paper, but does not appear to consider that a human is required to participate.

Back to numbers, Quinnipiac numbers.  Ignoring the impact of self-described Independents sampled, are the survey results predetermined simply by oversampling of one party? Would it have been a dead-heat if there was no predominance of one group over another?

Florida Political Survey:
Republicans surveyed     344
Democrats surveyed       417
Result:             Democrat preferred 53% - 44%, a 9% difference
Oversample of Democrats:    9%

Pennsylvania Survey:
Republicans    344
Democrats      457
Result:             Democrat Preferred 54% - 42, a 12% difference
Oversample of Democrats:    11%

Ohio Survey:
Republicans   326
Democrats     387
Result:            Democrat Preferred  53% - 43, a 10% difference
Oversample of Democrats:   9%

Judge for yourself: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/presidential-swing-states-%28fl-oh-and-pa%29/release-detail?ReleaseID=1800